Prediction of COVID-19 Dynamics in Kuwait using SIRD Model


Corona Virus
SIR model

How to Cite

Sedaghat A, Alkhatib F, Mostafaeipour N, Abbas Oloomi SA. Prediction of COVID-19 Dynamics in Kuwait using SIRD Model. Integr J Med Sci [Internet]. 2020Jun.9 [cited 2020Jul.11];7. Available from:


COVID-19 infectious started on 24 February 2020 with 5 patients returning to Kuwait. The ministry of health (MOH) has reported the total of 26,192 patients with 10,156 recovered, 15,831 under treatment, 205 deceased, 206 critical and 23 quarantined in Kuwait on 30 May 2020. Accurate prediction of number of expected infected patients, patients under treatment, patients in critical condition, and death will assist health authorities for better planning and the government policy makers a better approach to reduce the number of susceptible people to COVID-19. In this study, a modified SIR model is used to determine COVID-19 dynamics in Kuwait. COVID-19 data for 97 days consist of infectious, recovered, and deceased cases are used to study SIRD model and to obtain the re-production number  and the total susceptible (Sus) population. The accuracy of the fitted model is assessed using the coefficient of determination (R2). The re-production of  with the total susceptible (predicted) population of 123,102 is obtained to assess dynamics of COVID-19 in Kuwait. It is predicted that the peak of COVID-19 infectious will be around 23 June 2020 with the total infected cases of 56,533. However, maximum 26,039 people on need of hospitals may be accelerated on 10 June 2020 and will quickly drop on 2 July 2020 to only 377 people. The total deceased cases will be 1,169 on this date; although, the death tolls may continue to the total value of 2,667 by the end of pandemic.


Huang Y, Yang L, Dai H, Tian F & Chen K. Epidemic situation and forecasting of COVID-19 in and outside China. [Submitted]. Bull World Health Organ. E-pub: 16 March 2020. DOI: 10.2471/BLT.20.255158.

Lin Jia, Kewen Li, Yu Jiang, Xin Guo, Ting zhao, Prediction and analysis of Coronavirus Disease 2019, arXiv:2003.05447v2, arXiv 2020.

COVID-19 updates, State of Kuwait live [Internet]. [cited 2020 May 27]. Available from:

Roda WC, Varughese MB, Han D, Li MY. Why is it difficult to accurately predict the COVID-19 epidemic? Infect Dis Model. 2020 Jan 1;5:271–81. DOI:10.1016/j.idm.2020.03.001

Devore JL. Chapter 12.5: Simple Linear Regression and Correlation (pp. 508–510). Probability and Statistics for Engineering and the Sciences . 8th Edition. Boston, MA: Cengage Learning. 2011. ISBN 978-0-538-73352-6.

Kermack WO, McKendrick AG. A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics. Proc R Soc London Ser A, Contain Pap a Math Phys Character. 1927 Aug 1;115(772):700–21. DOI: 10.1098/rspa.1927.0118

Anderson RM, May RM. Population biology of infectious diseases: Part I. Vol. 280, Nature. Nature Publishing Group; 1979. p. 361–7. DOI: 10.1038/280361a0

Jones DS, Sleeman BD. Ch. 14 in Differential equations and mathematical biology. London: Allen & Unwin, 1983.

Kuwait Population (2020) - Worldometer [Internet]. [accessed 2020 May 27]. Available from:

Hethcote HW. The mathematics of infectious diseases. SIAM review. 2000;42(4):599-653. DOI: 10.1137/s0036144500371907.

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Copyright (c) 2020 Ahmad Sedaghat et al.